A new survey of the Texas U.S. Senate race is drawing attention for one striking number: roughly 30 percent of voters who backed John Cornyn in this year’s Republican runoff say they would vote for Democrat James Talarico in a general-election matchup against Republican Ken Paxton. The poll, conducted May 27 and 28, 2026, by Texas Public Opinion Research, offers an early look at how the contest could shake out now that the GOP nomination has been settled.
What the Poll Found
According to Texas Public Opinion Research, when voters who had supported Cornyn in the Republican runoff were asked how they would vote in a Talarico-versus-Paxton general election, about 30 percent said they would choose Talarico, the Democrat. Roughly 44 percent said they would stick with Paxton, the Republican nominee, while around 23 percent said they were undecided.
The figure matters because of who these voters are. This is not a snapshot of the broad Texas electorate. It is a narrower look at a specific group: Republicans and Republican-leaning voters who preferred Cornyn during the primary process. That a meaningful slice of them would consider crossing party lines in November is the kind of detail that political observers watch closely in an otherwise reliably red state.
Important Context: Cornyn Lost the Runoff
One point is essential to understanding the numbers correctly. John Cornyn lost the Republican runoff to Ken Paxton. He is not on the general-election ballot. So the poll is not measuring a sitting Cornyn campaign or an active Cornyn-versus-Talarico race. Instead, it is measuring how Cornyn’s former supporters – voters whose preferred candidate did not advance – say they would behave now that the choice in November is between Paxton and Talarico.
That distinction is easy to blur in headlines, but it changes the meaning of the result. These voters are not abandoning anyone’s current campaign. They are deciding what to do after their first choice came up short, and a portion of them say they are open to a Democrat rather than automatically falling in line behind the Republican who beat their candidate.
Why Some Voters May Be Crossing Over
Analysts looking at the data suggest the crossover number says more about Paxton than about Talarico. Ken Paxton has faced years of legal and ethics controversies during his time in Texas politics, and observers tie much of the hesitation among former Cornyn voters to that baggage rather than to enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate. In other words, the movement appears to be driven less by a positive embrace of Talarico and more by discomfort with Paxton among a segment of Republican-leaning voters.
James Talarico, for his part, would need exactly this kind of crossover support to be competitive statewide. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in decades, and the math for any Democratic candidate depends on holding the party base while peeling off a share of moderate and disaffected Republican voters. A poll showing nearly one in three former Cornyn backers willing to consider him is the type of signal a challenger campaign would highlight.
What It Means – and the Caveats
It is worth keeping the result in perspective. A single poll is a snapshot, not a prediction, and surveys of subgroups carry more uncertainty than topline numbers. Voter sentiment this far out can shift as the campaign unfolds, candidates sharpen their messages, and national conditions change. Many of those undecided former Cornyn voters could ultimately return to the Republican nominee.
Still, the finding underscores a broader point that applies well beyond Texas: candidate-specific factors, not just party labels, can move voters in high-profile statewide races. When a portion of a party’s own primary electorate signals openness to the other side, it suggests the eventual outcome may hinge as much on the individual nominees as on the partisan lean of the state.
For now, the Texas Public Opinion Research poll gives both campaigns something to study. Paxton’s team will want to consolidate the Republicans who are currently undecided or drifting, while Talarico’s team will look to expand on the crossover support the survey identified.
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